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Musings from the Mountains
First, a few words about the housing market here in the Maggie Valley, Waynesville area. Housing inventories remain thin (not enough homes currently for sale). As housing prices fluctuate with supply and demand, this shortage of inventory has housing prices remaining elevated as they have the last 2 years. I believe housing prices will remain stable unless inventories rise considerably.
Second, a word about our weather. Many folks coming here to live, or choosing to purchase a vacation home here, do so for the beauty of our mountains, and our mountain weather. After much of February, March and April having above average temperatures, this week has been cooler with showers. Next week, at least according to the weatherman, will be drier, but still cool. Daytime temperatures next week are forecast to be in the mid 50’s to the mid 60’s. This will be great for getting that garden started, and maybe planting tomatoes.
Third, I want everyone to know about the closing that has been announced for the Evergreen Packaging paper mill in Canton. This closing will directly impact 1000 employees and many other associated businesses such as the chipper mill in Waynesville, and all the loggers in the area who cut pulp wood for the plant, and many others who depend either directly or indirectly on the mill for their livelihood. This is a challenging time for Canton, especially. Kudos to Zeb Smathers, the mayor of Canton, who has been working tirelessly to help displaced workers find other employment and set up training programs to help these workers train for other job opportunities. Many of these workers are second and third generation employees of the plant.
Lastly, I have had customers ask about Pickleball in our area. Pickleball is known as the fastest growing sport in America, and even the world. Many folks coming from Florida have been playing Pickleball there. I can tell you from personal experience that Pickleball is alive and well here in the mountains. The Waynesville Recreation Center has indoor pickleball courts in the Rec Center on Vance Street and the Old Armory on Boundary Street in Waynesville. There are also outdoor courts at Lake Junaluska and more outdoor courts planned in the Allens Creek Park off Allens Creek Road in Waynesville. The town of Canton just opened 6 new pickleball courts in Canton at the rec park across from the Canton Middle School. Also, Bear Waters Brewery is opening a new location on South Main Street in Waynesville, near Walmart. They are remodeling an old warehouse and will have some indoor Pickleball courts according to a newspaper article.
Thanks for reading this. See you next time!
Real Estate Recap March 2023
Looking at the final numbers from March 2023, we are beginning to see sales and prices moderate, although inventories of homes for sale are still tight. The lack of inventory is keeping prices up.
In March of this year, we sold 95 homes in the county, compared to 103 homes in March 2022.
The average sales price this March was $364,678 compared to $379,245 in March 2022. (a drop of 3.8%)
One interesting number from the stats was the percentage of original sales price received. Last year in March the average home sold for 96.6% of the original list price in MLS. This March the average home sold for 93.2% of the original list price. This shows that more sellers are willing to negotiate the sales price a bit. Negotiations of sales prices were rare last year when buyers were often paying over list price.
Last year in March we had 139 homes in the county for sale. This year we have 189 homes currently for sale in the county. Even with the increased number of homes for sale in the county we still only have a 2 month’s supply of homes for sale. (In other words, if no new homes came on the market for sale and current sales rates remained the same, we would sell all our homes within 2 months.) A balanced market (neither a buyer’s nor seller’s market) is usually considered a 6 month’s supply.
To sum up, inventories of homes for sale have risen, but it’s still a seller’s market. Home prices have really gone up in the last 3 years but are beginning to stabilize. If you have any real estate questions, please let us know. We are here to help.
Musings from the Mountains
Good morning. The first thing on my mind today is real estate mortgage rates. We all know that rates have risen considerably from the few years where we enjoyed rates in the 3 to 4 percent range. When the Federal Reserve began raising rates last year to combat the post pandemic inflation, mortgage rates started climbing. Earlier this year rates climbed to almost 7 percent for a conventional 30-year home mortgage. I am happy to say that recently rates have begun lowering. Currently, 30-year mortgage rates for a conventional loan are about 6.125 percent. FHA mortgage rates are currently at 5.625 percent. This month I represented a client who received an FHA mortgage loan for 5.25 percent when buying a home. Of course, I am quoting rates for primary home mortgages. Secondary home mortgages and investment property mortgages will be somewhat higher. Sometimes we, as humans, try to “time the market” on rates. In other words, if rates are declining, we tend to wait until they lower more before we pull the trigger. Always remember, if rates come down a year or several years after you purchase a home, you can always refinance. If rates go up, and you have a fixed-rate mortgage, your rate stays the same, no worries.
On another note, the weather here has been wonderful the last couple of months. We have had some cold mornings, but overall temperatures have been above normal, with warm, sunny afternoons. I have lived here for almost 50 years, and I can honestly say that winters here are getting milder and milder as an overall trend. We get many buyers here from Florida, and some now from Texas. When I ask why they want to live here, or purchase a secondary home here, the most common answer is “I want to get away from the hot summers.” Our cool mountain evenings in the summer are truly a gift.
By the way, if you’re already fortunate enough to own a home here, and may be thinking about selling, please give us an opportunity to do a market analysis on your home. It may be worth more than you think. We really need inventory right now. We have more buyers currently than we have sellers.
If you’re in the area, stop by and say “Hello”!
Real Estate Recap February 2023
Looking at the final numbers for Haywood County in February, it’s a real mixed bag of statistics. Compared to 2022 new home listings were down from 77 last year to 66 this February. We really need more homes to come on the market, as we have more buyers than sellers currently.
Closed home sales this year in February dropped from 77 last year to 56 this year, a 27.3% decrease. However, pending home sales rose 15.2% from last February. (76 this year versus 66 last year)
The median sales price rose from $329,000 last year to $356,900 this year, an 8.5% increase. (Median sales price means the middle price: the same number of homes sold for less than median and the same number of homes sold for more than median.)
The average sales price actually rose 23.8% in February compared to February 2022. $354,100 last year and $438,521 this February. This anomaly is mainly caused by a lack of homes in the lower price ranges. We sold more homes in the higher price ranges, because there are more homes available in the higher price ranges. The lower price ranges have extremely tight inventories.
Average days on the market increased from 32 days last year (when buyers were offering quick cash closings) to 75 days this year, which reflects a more normal market.
Our month’s supply of inventory has increase from 1.2 months last year in February to 1.8 months this February. A balanced real estate market, one where there are an equal number of buyers and sellers is considered a 5 to 6 month’s supply. Obviously, we are still in a seller’s market here in Haywood County.
As you can see from the above statistics, the current real estate market is complex. We are here to help simplify the details and make your next real estate transaction painless. Y’all come see us!
Musings from the Mountains
Today I want to mention a few happenings in real estate today, and a bit of my opinion about short-term rentals in our area.
Typically, home buyers with FHA mortgages pay lower down payments than home buyers with conventional mortgages. This results in their having to purchase Mortgage Insurance until they achieve an agreed upon amount of equity. The Department of Housing and Urban Development recently moved to lower Mortgage Insurance Premiums beginning in March. This reduction in premiums would save the average home buyer $800.00 in their first year of home ownership. With interest rates in the 6% range currently, this would be welcome savings for many home buyers.
We all know that home prices have climbed considerably in the last few years. According to the National Association of Realtors® Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, home prices nationally have risen 42% in the last 3 years. However, it seems that locally, home prices have stabilized, at least for the time being.
The good, bad, and ugly of short-term vacation rentals: Since the Covid outbreak of 2020, more vacationers have come to prefer renting a vacation property as to staying in a hotel or motel. Originally this was probably driven by vacationers wanting to avoid crowds and come in contact with as few people as possible. Also, others working remotely during the pandemic wanted a place to stay away from crowds. So ultimately, many investors recognized this trend and purchased vacation properties here in our beautiful mountains. A good portion of our homes available for sale were sold and converted from single family residences to short-term vacation rentals. This has contributed to a shortage of homes for sale in our area for both full-time residents and second-home purchasers. Real estate prices are driven by supply and demand. If you lower the supply, and still have demand, prices ultimately rise. Do we have too many short-term rentals now? The jury is still out on that one.
Do you have any real estate questions? If so, please let us know. We are happy to help.
Real Estate Recap and Pickleball
I want to recap the home sales results from January and then a few words about pickleball in our area.
The number of closed sales for January decreased 40% from January 2022. However, pending sales (not yet closed) increased by almost 10%. (101 this year, 92 last year) Our inventory of homes for sale has increased 27% from January 2022. Our month’s supply of inventory is now 2.0 months compared to 1.3 months last year in January. This is a good trend, however. we are still in a seller’s market and need more homes to come on the market. Inventory is particularly scarce in the $200,000 to $400,000 price range. We still have many buyers in this price range that cannot find a home that works for them.
Hopefully, more homes will come on the market in the spring and help rebalance our market by summer. We do have several new housing developments in the works.
Pickleball is probably the fastest growing sport in America. We are fortunate here to have the Waynesville Rec Center. They have swimming, exercise equipment, a walking track, racquetball, basketball, volleyball, and pickleball courts. The Rec Center also has 3 pickleball courts in the old Armory on Boundary Street. For those of us who are retired and have a Medicare Supplement or Medicare Advantage, the rec center works with Silver Sneakers and AARP United Healthcare to provide gym memberships at no charge with those insurance plans. In addition to the rec center, there are outdoor courts at Lake Junaluska, courtesy of the Junaluska Assembly. Bear Waters Brewing is reportedly opening a new brewery location on South Main Street in Waynesville close to Walmart with some indoor pickleball courts.
Bottom line, we have an active and welcoming pickleball community here in our area. If you are retired and moving here from Florida, Texas, or any other state and play Pickleball at home, just bring your paddle and come on up.
Musings from the Mountains
Musings from the Mountains will be thoughts and happenings from the Maggie Valley and Waynesville area with little bit of everything else thrown in.
In Maggie Valley we are starting a road improvement project along Soco Road (Highway 19) this Spring. The project aim is to make Soco Road (2.5 miles of it) more walkable and safer for pedestrians. There will be a series of islands constructed in the existing turn lane. (Soco Road is a 5-lane road with a turn lane in the middle.) The crosswalks with be constructed with a stamped brick appearance. The existing islands will be revamped with new landscaping. In addition to the island crosswalks, 5 current painted crosswalks will get the faux-brick treatment and crossing signals. This road improvement project has been on the back burner for some time with much discussion from locals.
In Waynesville, the apartment complex off Russ Avenue, where the old Bi-Lo Shopping Center once stood, is getting closer to being completed. This complex was originally advertised to contain 210 units. The area certainly needs this as rentals seem to be in short supply. It’s difficult to miss these apartments, as they have certainly changed the look of Russ Avenue. We old-timers probably remember Ready-Mix Concrete Company that was there prior to the Bi-Lo Shopping Center.
On a more local note, after years of seldom seeing any deer at our home on Utah Mountain, it seems we have our own herd of deer now. We have 6 or more deer in our yard about every other day. I didn’t know deer ate rhododendrons, but apparently, they do. Some of our rhododendrons look pathetic with most of the leaves gone.
While I’m on the subject of rhododendrons, did you know that most of the old-timers here in the mountains called them Mountain Laurel. The plants we now call Mountain Laurel, the old-timers called Mountain Ivy. This apparently goes way back as Horace Kephart wrote about this in his book Our Southern Highlanders, published in 1913.
If you haven’t been to the mountains in a while, come up and see us!
2022 Real Estate Recap
As we now have sales figures for December 2022, I thought I would discuss the numbers for the whole year of 2022.
Comparing 2022 to 2021, the total number of homes sold in 2022 was 1197 compared to 1425 in 2021. This represents a decrease of 16% from 2021. The average sales price in 2022 was $379,990 versus $358,309 in 2021, for an increase of 6.1%. My takeaway from these numbers was that sales are leveling off, but prices remain elevated due to a continued lack of good inventory.
For December 2022, closed sales were down 35.4% from December 2021. However, the average sales price rose 3.6 percent over December 2021. This was mainly due to lack of inventory. Our inventories increased in December 2022 by 24.6% over December 2021. At the beginning of this year, we were up to a 2.5 month’s supply of homes for sale. Although that is an improvement, a balanced market is usually seen as a 5.5 to 6 month’s supply of homes. (A balanced market is neither a buyer’s market nor a seller’s market.)
We continue to need homes to sell. If you’re even thinking of selling your home this year, please give us a call. We can do a Comparable Market Analysis for you at no charge. The market analysis will let you know what your home should sell for in the current market compared to similar homes that have recently sold.
If you are looking for first home, second home, retirement home, or an investment property, please let us help you. We are very aware of market conditions here in the mountains and will put our many years of experience to work for you.
2023 Real Estate Forecast
It’s always tough looking into the future without a crystal ball. The only thing to rely on is past experience. Yet the problem is we have never gone through a pandemic, followed by a real estate boom, followed by high inflation, and higher mortgage rates. Some experts are calling for a recession, and slower real estate sales. The last recession that began in 2007 was driven by mortgages that were given out like candy, with little or no oversight as to the buyers’ ability to make payments in the future. This was compounded by 8 million job loses, taking away the means of many buyers to make those mortgage payments. Many foreclosures began and continued for years.
Moving to the present, laws were enacted to prevent predatory lending, and make sure buyers could afford their payments. Therefore, most mortgages today are much more stable than in 2007. Also, there seems to be plenty of jobs available for those who want to work. So, at least currently, there seems to be no danger of mass unemployment. One of the biggest reasons preventing a recession in real estate is inventories. In most parts of the country, and especially here, there are not enough houses on the market to fill buyers’ needs. During and after the pandemic a home-buying frenzy began. This was partially caused by many workers having the ability to work remotely, and partially by the rush to buy vacation rental properties. Then this year when mortgage rates increased, many homeowners with mortgage rates in the 3 to 4 percent range have been reluctant to sell their homes knowing the mortgage rate on a replacement home would be considerably higher.
Now the forecast: It appears to us that home prices will stabilize at current levels or decrease slightly in the first half of 2023. Home sales will decrease some, mostly due to insufficient inventories of available homes. We also believe that mortgage rates will drop some from current levels as demand decreases. However, the days of 3 percent mortgages are definitely behind us.
If you are looking to buy a home, or looking to sell, let us help you navigate the housing market.
Local Market Update for November
Looking at the final numbers for real estate in Haywood County for November 2022, it seems sales are leveling off and getting back to normal. New listings are still lagging last year’s numbers, so inventories are still tight. New listings this November were off 10.5% from November 2021.
Sales were off 25.2% from November 2021. We sold 98 homes in the county this November, compared to 131 homes in November 2021.
The average sales price of $376,676 remained about the same from November 2021 to this November. Again, this was probably a result of tight inventories.
Days on the market until sale increased from 27 days in November 2021 to 35 days this November. This would also reflect a normalizing of the market.
Although home inventories remain tight, we increased the number of homes on the market by almost 17% from November 2021 to this November. Based on sales rates and available inventory, we now have a 2.8 month’s supply of homes on the market. In November 2021 we only had a 1.9 month’s supply of homes on the market. This increase is welcome, but a balanced market is usually regarded as a 6 month’s supply. A balanced market is one where there is an equal number of buyers and sellers. (Neither a buyer’s market nor a seller’s market)
As a result of being a “destination market” for second homes, vacation rental homes, retirement homes, and employees working remotely due to the pandemic, our market went crazy for over 2 years. From the current numbers, it would seem our market is now normalizing once again.
As with most markets, the only constant is change. If you are thinking of buying or selling here in these beautiful mountains, let us help you negotiate our changing market.
