Blog
2022 Real Estate Recap
As we now have sales figures for December 2022, I thought I would discuss the numbers for the whole year of 2022.
Comparing 2022 to 2021, the total number of homes sold in 2022 was 1197 compared to 1425 in 2021. This represents a decrease of 16% from 2021. The average sales price in 2022 was $379,990 versus $358,309 in 2021, for an increase of 6.1%. My takeaway from these numbers was that sales are leveling off, but prices remain elevated due to a continued lack of good inventory.
For December 2022, closed sales were down 35.4% from December 2021. However, the average sales price rose 3.6 percent over December 2021. This was mainly due to lack of inventory. Our inventories increased in December 2022 by 24.6% over December 2021. At the beginning of this year, we were up to a 2.5 month’s supply of homes for sale. Although that is an improvement, a balanced market is usually seen as a 5.5 to 6 month’s supply of homes. (A balanced market is neither a buyer’s market nor a seller’s market.)
We continue to need homes to sell. If you’re even thinking of selling your home this year, please give us a call. We can do a Comparable Market Analysis for you at no charge. The market analysis will let you know what your home should sell for in the current market compared to similar homes that have recently sold.
If you are looking for first home, second home, retirement home, or an investment property, please let us help you. We are very aware of market conditions here in the mountains and will put our many years of experience to work for you.
2023 Real Estate Forecast
It’s always tough looking into the future without a crystal ball. The only thing to rely on is past experience. Yet the problem is we have never gone through a pandemic, followed by a real estate boom, followed by high inflation, and higher mortgage rates. Some experts are calling for a recession, and slower real estate sales. The last recession that began in 2007 was driven by mortgages that were given out like candy, with little or no oversight as to the buyers’ ability to make payments in the future. This was compounded by 8 million job loses, taking away the means of many buyers to make those mortgage payments. Many foreclosures began and continued for years.
Moving to the present, laws were enacted to prevent predatory lending, and make sure buyers could afford their payments. Therefore, most mortgages today are much more stable than in 2007. Also, there seems to be plenty of jobs available for those who want to work. So, at least currently, there seems to be no danger of mass unemployment. One of the biggest reasons preventing a recession in real estate is inventories. In most parts of the country, and especially here, there are not enough houses on the market to fill buyers’ needs. During and after the pandemic a home-buying frenzy began. This was partially caused by many workers having the ability to work remotely, and partially by the rush to buy vacation rental properties. Then this year when mortgage rates increased, many homeowners with mortgage rates in the 3 to 4 percent range have been reluctant to sell their homes knowing the mortgage rate on a replacement home would be considerably higher.
Now the forecast: It appears to us that home prices will stabilize at current levels or decrease slightly in the first half of 2023. Home sales will decrease some, mostly due to insufficient inventories of available homes. We also believe that mortgage rates will drop some from current levels as demand decreases. However, the days of 3 percent mortgages are definitely behind us.
If you are looking to buy a home, or looking to sell, let us help you navigate the housing market.
Local Market Update for November
Looking at the final numbers for real estate in Haywood County for November 2022, it seems sales are leveling off and getting back to normal. New listings are still lagging last year’s numbers, so inventories are still tight. New listings this November were off 10.5% from November 2021.
Sales were off 25.2% from November 2021. We sold 98 homes in the county this November, compared to 131 homes in November 2021.
The average sales price of $376,676 remained about the same from November 2021 to this November. Again, this was probably a result of tight inventories.
Days on the market until sale increased from 27 days in November 2021 to 35 days this November. This would also reflect a normalizing of the market.
Although home inventories remain tight, we increased the number of homes on the market by almost 17% from November 2021 to this November. Based on sales rates and available inventory, we now have a 2.8 month’s supply of homes on the market. In November 2021 we only had a 1.9 month’s supply of homes on the market. This increase is welcome, but a balanced market is usually regarded as a 6 month’s supply. A balanced market is one where there is an equal number of buyers and sellers. (Neither a buyer’s market nor a seller’s market)
As a result of being a “destination market” for second homes, vacation rental homes, retirement homes, and employees working remotely due to the pandemic, our market went crazy for over 2 years. From the current numbers, it would seem our market is now normalizing once again.
As with most markets, the only constant is change. If you are thinking of buying or selling here in these beautiful mountains, let us help you negotiate our changing market.
Thank You for 2022!
Instead of another real estate blog, I would like to pause a moment to sincerely thank all of our clients and customers. This has been one of the best years we have ever experienced. Without all of you, our successes would not have been possible.
Too often life and business seem to get in the way. We don’t stop to consider our blessings and thank those who make our blessings possible. In many communities and even in some families, we are divided by politics or religion and are almost afraid to talk to one another. We all need to put those differences behind us and be civil to each other again. If we can’t always find a way to do that, maybe we can make an exception for the upcoming season. Let’s all try to at least be kind to each other. That would be my Christmas wish.
So, Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, or Seasons Greetings! But to all of you who worked with us this year, Thank You! for trusting us to help with your real estate needs.
October Real Estate Results
The information provided below is based on local market updates from Canopy MLS for Haywood County, NC.
New listings were down 11.8% from October of last year, and closed sales were down 23.6% from October of last year. Rising interest rates on home mortgages have kept many homes off the market. Potential home sellers who have low interest rate mortgages have no desire to sell their home and buy a new home with a much higher mortgage rate.
The average sales price of homes was also down to $356,924. This is down 5.1% from October of last year, and down 11% from September of this year.
The average days a home spent on the market until it sold in October was 46 days. This is over 50% longer than homes spent on the market until they sold in September of this year.
A balanced market in real estate is usually considered a 6 month’s supply of homes. (Neither a buyer’s market nor a seller’s market) Going back to April of this year, we only had a 1.1 month’s supply of homes on the market. (A seller’s market) Inventories have increased steadily since then. In October we had a 2.7 month’s supply of homes on the market. This is still a seller’s market, but it is trending toward more inventory every month. If this trend continues, we could be back to a buyer’s market in just a few months.
To sum things up, real estate can be a rapidly changing market. If you are considering buying or selling, we invite you to let us help navigate the market.
Housing Market Outlook
Why is the housing market different today than it was in 2008 before the housing crash?
- Housing inventories ae very low. The nation is about 3 million homes short of meeting buyer demand.
- Buyers still want to purchase homes. Affordability has taken a hit with both home prices and mortgage rates rising, but buyers are still looking for and purchasing homes.
- Mortgages are very different than in 2008. Subprime lending that was blamed for the 2008 crash is much smaller and more regulated than in 2008.
- Far fewer homeowners are behind on their mortgage payments than in 2008.
- Real estate can be a hedge against inflation. Locking in a fixed rate mortgage now protects against future increases. Also, should mortgage rates fall in the future, homeowners can refinance at lower rates.
- Some markets may experience a small decrease in home prices as markets adjust. Keep in mind a decrease of 5% or so in some markets is not the same as a market crash.
September Real Estate Sales Results
Wow, the colors are really beautiful this year. At 5,000 to 6,000 feet the colors are already past the peak. The fall colors are brilliant and gorgeous from 3500 to 5000 feet and will soon be beautiful at 2500-3000 feet here in Maggie Valley.
Okay, now, let’s talk real estate sales. In September we had 141 new listings come on the market in Haywood County. Last year in September we had 142 new listings come on the market, so very little change there. Last year in September we only had a 2.1 months’ supply of homes on the market. This year our inventory has risen to a 2.7 months’ supply. So, our inventory has increased a bit, but is still far short of a 6 months’ supply, which is considered a balanced market. (Less than 6 months is a sellers’ market, more than 6 months is a buyers’ market.) As long as inventories of homes for sale remains low, prices should continue to rise a small amount. At some point, prices should level off, or even decline a small amount with mortgage rates continuing to rise.
In September we sold 113 homes in Haywood County, compared to 134 homes in September last year. This was a decrease in sales of 15.7% year to year. Prices, however continued to rise in September to an average of $401,183, which was a 3.4% increase over September 2021.
Average listing prices continue to rise. In September 2021 the average listing price was $355,319. This year the average listing price is $447,986, which is a 26.1% increase year over year. In my opinion, this is a knee-jerk reaction by sellers, and some real estate agents to the strong sales market and low inventory. I believe some homes are now a bit overpriced on the market. If you are considering buying a home, make sure your agent does a comparison to similar homes that have recently sold to give you some guidance on an offering price.
The last couple of years have been unique in our market. If you are considering buying or selling a home, let us share our years of experience to help you make a smart choice.
(All market statistics courtesy of Canopy MLS and 2022 Showing Time.)
Fall Colors in the Mountains
I am sitting here in the office thinking about the devastation around Fort Myers in Florida. Words can’t express how that makes me feel. We are all concerned for those who lost family, pets, homes or property during the storm. Hopefully we will watch the recovery and rebuilding progress soon.
Fall colors are coming soon. Here in Maggie Valley, you can see the colors just beginning at the tops of the highest peaks. The birches and spice bushes are turning yellow and some of the maples have a touch of red. In town the Bradford Pears are turning red on the top halves of the trees. It’s amazing to watch the colors march down the mountains in October. Full color should occur here about the 22nd of October. However, that varies with location and altitude. The great thing about fall color is if you are not here exactly at the peak, it’s usually peak color somewhere near here. If there’s not much color yet here in the valley, get on the Blue Ridge Parkway. The colors always begin at higher elevations. If the colors are past peak on the parkway, travel the lower roads. Take Hwy 215 from Canton by Lake Logan, and on toward Rosman. If colors are past peak here in the valley, try the Nantahala Skyway near Robbinsville, NC. They are southwest of us, so the colors seem to be a bit behind ours. In other words, get here from October 10th to the end of October, and colors will probably be peak somewhere.
We look forward to your visit. Stop by and say “Hello”.
August Real Estate Sales Results
Another month is already come and gone. It seems the older I get, the faster they go.
We did have an increase in the number of New Listings come on the market in August. New listings were up 17.5% from August 2021. This is good news, as we currently have a shortage in homes on the market within the Maggie Valley/ Waynesville area. This gives us a 2.4- month supply of homes on the market. This is an improvement over previous months inventory, but still definitely a “Sellers’ Market”.
Closed sales in August dropped 3.9% from August 2021, and days on the market for listed homes increased by 23.8%. The market is strong, but these numbers seem to indicate the market is leveling somewhat. The average sales price was up 5.8% from August 2021 to a price of $398,087. This was a substantial increase, but not as large as increases seen in the previous few months. Again, this indicates at least a slowing of the price increases we have seen monthly since Spring of 2020.
The average list price of homes coming on the market in August rose 3.8% from August 2021 to $421,798. This is down from the year-to-date average list price of $438,410, yet another indicator of the market leveling off a bit.
I hope these numbers help you get a feel for market conditions here. If you have any questions or comments, please let us know.
Thanks to Showing Time and Canopy MLS for the data provided above.
